Independent Load Forecasts 

Load forecasts, or educated estimates about the demand on energy consumption, help gauge the risks associated with potential changes in use of energy in the coming years. To aid the development of an independent view of future demand in the MISO footprint, we hired State Utility Forecasting Group (SUFG), an un-biased, third-party vendor, to develop 10-year demand and energy forecasts annually for the next three years. This transparently developed forecast provides an additional data point for stakeholder discussions regarding MISO’s long- term load forecast – an additional input to numerous annual studies and reports.

2016 MISO Independent Load Forecast Report
2016 Independent Load Forecast Results
2015 MISO Independent Load Forecast Report
2015 Independent Load Forecast Summary Results

Frequently Asked Questions

Find answers to the questions frequently asked during the initial development of the first Independent Load Forecast.


Forecasting Methodology

SUFG employs a multi-step approach to forecast annual energy and seasonal peak demand at the Local Resource Zone (LRZ) and MISO system-wide levels. SUFG develops econometric models for each State in the MISO footprint to forecast retail sales for a 10-year period.  Utilizing these statewide energy forecasts, SUFG constructs annual energy forecasts for each LRZ, while accounting for the fraction of statewide load included in each  LRZ. SUFG utilizes the LRZ annual energy forecast to develop seasonal non-coincident peak demand projections for each LRZ and the coincident peak demand projections to create MISO system-wide peak demand projections. The flow chart to the right illustrates the five major steps in the process and the key inputs at each step.

Load Forecast Comparison

We compare the Independent Load Forecast at the Local Resource Zones using the aggregated forecasts submitted by the Load Serving Entities (LSE) and Transmission Owners (TOs). By examining the SUFG results in comparison to the aggregated LSE forecasts, suitably adjusted for diversity, we can determine whether there is a meaningful difference between the results and then seek to understand those differences. 

Note:  The comparison does not test accuracy or whether the load forecast is acceptable.

Learn more about this high-level approach

2015-2024 Independent Load Forecast

Access the materials presented at the workshops where stakeholders reviewed the methodology, assumptions and results of the 2015-2024 Independent Load Forecast.

Independent Load Forecast 2015-2024 Report
Independent Load Forecast 2015-2024 Report (XLS)
MISO Response to OMS Letter

Workshop Dates Response to Stakeholder Feedback
Apr. 30, 2014 MISO SUFG
Jul.  28, 2014 MISO SUFG
Sep. 15, 2014 MISO SUFG
Independent Load Forecast 2015-2024 Report Comments SUFG

2016-2025 Independent Load Forecast

 Workshop Dates Comments Due    Response to Stakeholder Feedback
 Jan. 22, 2015  Feb. 3, 2015  MISO SUFG
 Apr. 23, 2015  May 14, 2015    
 July 23, 2015  Aug. 6, 2015  MISO  SUFG
 Sep. 17, 2015  Oct. 8, 2015    

2017-2026 Independent Load Forecast

 Workshop Dates Comments Due Response to Stakeholder Feedback  
 Jan. 2016  Feb. 2016    
 Apr. 2016  May 2016    
 Jul. 2016  Aug. 2016    
 Sep. 2016  Oct. 2016    

Stakeholder Involvement

The Planning Advisory Committee is the primary venue for Independent Load Forecast project status updates. Refer to posted PAC meeting materials for further information.  Find the current status in MISO's Monthly Transmission Planning Reports. 

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